I find that the quietness in markets over the Christmas break gives an opportunity for reflection. For the rest of the year, we are subject to a metaphorical firehose of news and information, much of which is directed at the short-term. I find that the forced separation from this unhealthy influence always provides renewed perspective.
Within capital markets, equity is the most permanent form of capital. Companies can issue or repay debts, buy or sell assets, hire or fire management, and undergo any number of other major changes. Short of bankruptcy, the equity capital endures through all of this. It is then somewhat ironic, that so much energy is directed to facilitating rapid decision making. For example, stock exchanges measure the speed with which orders can be executed in milli-seconds – or thousandths of a second!
Our job is to act as agents, making allocation decisions using other people’s money. Although our ability to discharge this responsibility can only realistically be measured in years, we are of course held to account over much shorter time periods. Much the same is true of the managements of the companies that we invest in, many of which are obliged to provide us with quarterly updates.
Clearly, accountability is a good thing, but I believe that the way it works in capital markets creates a structural bias towards short-termism. The steady stream of news and broker-analysis tempts investors into buying and selling more frequently than is justified and offers the illusion of “being in control” in the face of uncertainty.
In investing, however, being long-term and being wrong often appear indistinguishable from one another. Herein lies the rub!
I believe that there are three major sources of edge available in markets; (1) an informational advantage (knowing more than others); (2) an analytical advantage (better interpreting the information available to all); and (3) a behavioural advantage (avoiding the behavioural biases that are well documented in investing). Being long-term falls squarely within the third of these.
To behave in a long-term manner, you need conviction in your views. If you don’t have good reason to think that an investment will be worth more in the future, then being long-term clearly isn’t such a good idea!
Our long-standing holding in Warner Brothers Discovery offers something of a case study. For much of the time that we have owned it, the holding has been a drag on the performance of the fund. Our thesis was that the intrinsic value of the company was underpinned by what it owns, which included such things as the screen rights to the Harry Potter franchise. Whilst we had no idea when or how this value might be crystalised; we were confident that it existed. The bidding war to take control of these assets in the last two months, not only made the holding profitable, but validated the reason for our persistence.
Not all our investments will work out in the way that we would wish. Equally, not all years will see such strong performance as that of 2025. However, the commitments that I wish to reiterate to myself, and you, are that we will continue to strive to be both long-term and only act for well thought out reasons.
As your agent my interests are aligned with yours by virtue of almost all my own wealth being invested in the fund. Whilst I do not know what the short-term will hold, we remain committed to owning a diversified set of well thought out value-based investments. In this way we hope to navigate whatever 2026 might bring.
Matthew Beddall
CEO & Fund Manager, Havelock London Ltd