Matthew Beddall

“People calculate too much and think too little” – Charlie Munger

It was in 1987 that Economist Robert Solow said, “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics”, and the comment appears as relevant now as it was then. Whilst credible explanations for this “paradox” have been put forward, developed countries continue to suffer stagnant economic growth that is blamed, amongst other things, on stalled productivity improvements.

Whilst the prospect of “AI powered everything” holds the promise of us both working less and achieving more, the ever-higher expectations being placed on AI increase the risk of disappointment [1]. This is an issue of importance to investors, because of the impact it might have on their jobs, and the broader impact on the economy. Are we on the cusp of a productivity driven boom or is technology placing a squeeze on most people’s disposable incomes that is holding back growth?

I came across Munger’s quote last month in the writings of a highly respected value manager, and it resonated with me. It resonated because I see the current enthusiasm for AI as further devaluing the importance of human thought. Although the current crop of “generative AI” models present human-like abilities to create text, images or videos, it would be a mistake to believe that they possess an ability to think. They do not. They are trained on unimaginably huge quantities of data that they “slice and dice” to create their impressive results.

With a background in statistics and computing I am a believer in both the power of using data to make decisions and the benefits of automation. Despite this I think the importance placed on “thinking” has been reduced in our industry, as it has in other aspects of our lives.

Much more energy is expended by the investment industry on modelling next year’s earnings, than it is on contemplating the longer-term challenges or growth drivers for a company. I think that this is in part because humans seek comfort in the certainty of exact answers, even if they are answering the wrong questions.

Deeper trains of thought allow you to engage in “second level thinking”, exploring the knock-on effects of the obvious. It helps you see what others don’t. In a world that is becoming increasingly flooded with information, I see an ability to make sense of it as even more important. Whilst automation frees up time for thinking, it does not remove the need for it.

The market environment since the financial crisis in 2008 has favoured large companies, favoured US listed companies, and seen the risk of falling share prices underwritten by government. This is an environment where investors did not need to think to do well, as it is an environment that favoured investing in passive indices over actively managed funds.

I cannot know if the market environment is shifting in favour of active management, but it would be a mistake to think that the large companies which dominate the passive indices must always out-perform the smaller ones that active managers generally favour. Likewise, it would be a mistake to think that the risks of financial loss in investing will always be “socialised”.

The punch line that we “like to think” is, at first sight, underwhelming. Apologies if you were hoping for something deeper! However, I see the world shifting in a direction where it is becoming a rarefied skill, and one that investors should value.

[1] Emily Bender and Alex Hanna’s book on this subject makes for excellent reading (THE AI CON – How to Fight Big Tech’s Hype and Create the Future We Want)

I felt that I should share some thoughts and observations on the large fall in equity markets that we saw in the first week of the second quarter of 2025.

From my perspective it looks like the type of panic that is to be periodically expected in markets, and of the type that I have seen many times before. Our estimate of the fund’s “beta”, or sensitivity to a short-term fall in markets, was about 1x, and so far, this looks reasonably accurate. For many of the mid-caps we follow the price action looks relatively detached from any reasonable interpretation of tariff threats, and I believe that the decline has been exacerbated by leveraged investors making a “mad rush for the exits”.

The Financial Times reported* on the observations of hedge fund broker, Morgan Stanley, that Thursday 3rd April was “the worst day of performance for US-based long/short equity funds since it began tracking the data in 2016”. It also said that “the magnitude of hedge fund selling across equities on Thursday was in line with the largest seen on record”. This suggests that price moves have been driven by a panicked liquidation, more than a calm analysis of the facts.

Although we do not believe in trying to make short-term forecasts, my “best guess” is that we will see a “relief rally” as the worst of the liquidation passes. I think the true implications of the changing world order will take longer to become clear, and hence impact market prices. These price falls are certainly not a reason why we would start liquidating our own holdings, rather we look to cautiously make opportunistic changes to take advantage of others’ panic.

An example of this is our large holding in Air Lease that saw a 16% price fall in the space of two days. Air Lease buys aircraft and rents them to airlines, and at face value the tariff on importing planes into the US might seem like bad news. However, much of the company’s business is outside the US. More importantly, they have written into all their contracts that it is the Airline customers who bear responsibility for all tariff-related costs. Given the price fall I would guess that this is not widely understood.

In the final few days of March, the company had announced a partial settlement with their insurers from the aircraft that they have had “confiscated” in Russia. This will reverse part of their previous write off and increases the likelihood that the remaining unsettled claims will pay out in the company’s favour. The impact of the initial cash payments from insurers is that the “book value” of the company will increase by around 4%.

So, arguably, in the space of a couple of days the company moved to be 20% cheaper than it was previously, with no material first-level impact from tariffs. The company continues to own scarce assets that are in high demand. If consumer demand for flying softens, then it will be the oldest aircraft that airlines idle due to the cost of maintaining them, not the comparatively new planes that Air Lease owns.

I share this story as an example of what we have been seeing “at the coal face”, and the opportunities that the panic is potentially creating.

I do not know if this panic will prove short-lived or not. However, I think investors face the dual threats of higher inflation, due to the size of government debts, and weaker corporate earnings, due to a subdued economy. In this environment owning cash or bonds risks losing purchasing power, whilst owning equities priced for high growth risks disappointment. I see the modest valuations and robust balance sheets of the companies we own as both a source of defence and opportunity. In the years following the dot-com crash, and the collapse of the “Nifty Fifty” in the 1970s, value investing delivered a healthy outcome for investors. I cannot know if this will repeat, but it evidences the argument for “value” in this environment.

At Havelock we are focusing all our efforts on running one fund in which we have our own money invested. We have had six consecutive calendar years of positive returns, as well as 18 out of 26 quarters. Our company is both profitable at its current size and has around 3 times its required regulatory capital in reserves. This is all to say that we feel well prepared for whatever comes next.

Matthew Beddall
CEO, Havelock London

* https://www.ft.com/content/8ba439ec-297c-4372-ba45-37e9d7fd1771

This week the International Monetary Fund warned of a “widening disconnect” between geopolitical uncertainty and stock markets, hinting that valuations have become disconnected from reality. This follows similar such warnings in the last couple of weeks from the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England.

Given that financial markets appear full of optimism, it left me wondering if now is a good time for investors to be heeding these warnings?

As I reflected on this I began to feel like Corporal Jones, in the very British comedy Dad’s Army[1]. Jones can be relied upon to work himself up into a veritable frenzy, with the joke being that he repeatedly tells others “don’t panic don’t panic” whilst being the only person in the room to show any concern whatsoever about the next impending calamity.

The extreme market moves in August served as a stark reminder of the fragility of financial markets, and how little is really understood about the liquidity that underpins them. Time will tell if it proves to have been the “canary in the coal mine” for a deeper market panic, but having the FCA, IMF, and Bank of England all reference it is a sign that it definitely “rattled their cages”.

Nikhil Rathi, the CEO of the FCA, delivered a speech[2] at the start of October titled “Predictable volatility”, where he expressed the view that “things that used to be one-in-10-year events now happen every month”. He specifically spoke about factors beyond “familiar geopolitical concerns”, highlighting the growing role of technology, increased concentration in both stock indices and the financial system, tougher liquidity conditions, and increased interconnectedness, as sources of risk. His view that “new systemic risks” need “deeper examination”, is a concerning reminder that even those responsible for regulating financial markets struggle with their growing complexity.

The chart below[3] is from the IMF’s Financial Stability Report and illustrates the focus of their concern. It shows how they simultaneously see a very high level of geopolitical uncertainty, whilst financial market volatility is close to an all-time low.

You would have to be living in a cave to not be aware of the sources of rising geopolitical tension, but equity markets appear to have largely “shrugged them off” as not relevant. As I wrote this piece, headlines emerged of North Korea sending troops to fight in Europe – Ukraine still being a European country. I never imagined reading such a headline in my lifetime, yet this genre of news seems to be judged as far less attention worthy than AI powered robotaxis. Don’t Panic!

The minutes of the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee in October[4] stated that equity markets were at “stretched” valuations, leaving them “susceptible to a sharp correction”. They specifically highlight that hedge fund shorting of US Treasuries reached a new $1 trillion high, and the risk that a disorderly unwinding of this could disrupt markets. They went on to discuss “pockets of vulnerability among highly leveraged corporates, including private equity backed businesses” and “challenge faced by corporates that need to refinance their debt”.

S&P estimates[5] that there will be $7.3 trillion worth of corporate debt that needs to be refinanced in the next three years. For investment grade “BBB” credit, they estimate that borrowers will see their finance rate increase by around 2%, given that most maturing debt was issued at a time of record low interest rates. The task many companies face is to both find someone willing to lend to them, and then be able to meet the subsequent higher interest costs. That much of this activity has moved outside the purview of public markets, and the “constipation” within private equity when it comes to selling investments, add to my discomfort.

The chart below shows the debt to GDP ratio in the US since 1952, broken down by category of borrower[6]. The picture looks the same for most other developed market countries, which is that debt levels are at record highs. As these borrowings get refinanced at higher rates, more money is required to service the debts. This story isn’t new, and I am sure you will have seen variants of this chart before. Nonetheless, the “problem” isn’t going away, and in the years ahead I see a risk of lenders being shortchanged by defaulting borrowers, long-term inflation, and or financial repression.

There are multiple top-down ways in which I can show that parts of the equity market look expensive versus history. The chart below is Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio[7] for the US equity market, highlighting just how expensive it appears relative to historic earnings. On this basis the only times when the broad market has been this expensive are 1929 and 2000. Don’t panic!

I am all too aware that using a measure, such as this, to warn of impending doom makes me the Corporal Jones of the equity markets. This, and similar metrics, have been elevated for long enough that they are normalised, and so don’t appear to be reason for panic. Ink has been, and will continue to be, spilt on why this is so. Perhaps it isn’t so extreme due to a nuance of accounting, or perhaps the Federal Reserve will now always backstop markets such that valuations have reached a “permanently high plateau”. I believe that only time will tell if “this time is different”, but that it seems dangerous to assume that it must be so.

Switching to look “bottom up”, the next chart shows the average price earnings ratios of two groups of four companies that I picked from the S&P 500. I deliberately didn’t label them “growth” and “value”, but “Group A” are example holdings from growth portfolios, and more generally popularly owned, whereas “Group B” are not. All eight companies are businesses that I admire, and at the right price would consider owning. None are currently in our portfolio (but don’t read too much into this).

Group A contains Microsoft, S&P Global, Cost Co and Stryker Corp. Group B contains Deere & Co, Exxon, Target and Home Depot. Although somewhat arbitrary, I picked them as examples of the extreme divergence of valuations that we see at the coal face in our day-to-day work.

The chart illustrates how the valuations of companies that I view as popular amongst investors, have diverged from those that are not. Is it the case that the best days for “Group A” lie ahead of them, whilst “Group B” are on a glidepath to extinction? The gap in valuations suggests this to be the consensus view.

Although I cannot know which of these companies represents the best investments, clearly those in Group A have a much higher hurdle to clear in order to deliver on current expectations. In my opinion there is a distinct risk that many portfolios will find themselves concentrated towards the most expensive parts of the market, whether this be due to the use of passive products, or active funds that have laid down strong track records by investing in these areas.

Corporal Jones’ colleague, Private Frazer, would, I am sure, have been a value investor. His prognosis for most situations was that “we’re doomed”. As tempting as it is to reach for me to reach for this conclusion, I do not think it to be the case (if it were I certainly wouldn’t have almost all of my net wealth invested in the Havelock fund).

You can construct a version of the future where an AI productivity boom means that we aren’t doomed. High levels of economic growth could shrink levels of indebtedness, and justify the stretched valuations of many stock market darlings. Although possible, I think it unlikely.

The reason why I think we aren’t doomed is because there are many parts of financial markets that are out of favour, such that valuations look reasonable. In some areas this is in turn driving underinvestment, such that I believe the stage is set for scarcity to actually lift returns on capital.

Our approach of understanding companies from the ground up, and only investing when the valuation appears to offer a margin of safety looks, much like Dad’s Army, old fashioned. Prices appear to be increasingly anchored on short-term news, at the expense of long-term prospects. A simple example of this being “cyclical” businesses, where it clearly makes little sense to focus intently on just a single year’s earnings.

A further part of our approach is to try to create a portfolio that can weather storms, rather than one that is configured to expect only fair weather. This approach served us well in 2022, and the market dislocation in August was a clear reminder of why it remains relevant. To this end, we have researched and invested in several new ideas that we think of as “anti-fragile”. These are investments where we believe that chaos in the world order could see their valuations move higher. We don’t pretend to be able to predict how or when this might happen, but view them as a welcome form of diversification.

An example of this is a US natural gas production company. Thanks to the shale boom, US natural gas is the cheapest molecule of energy on the planet, and has helped reduce CO2 emissions by displacing the burning of coal. Due to a continued ramp up in US export capacity and demand from AI data centres, the market has the potential to move into a supply deficit in the years ahead. Given this and a modest valuation we see it as an attractive investment. In the scenario that global energy markets are severely disrupted it would become only more attractive.

The underinvestment in the energy sector is characterised by the MSCI World index having a 3.9% weight in the entire energy sector, versus 4.3% in each of Nvidia and Microsoft. This mirrors other capital-intensive sectors that have been starved of capital. This creates scarcity, which is something that we think can underpin long-term value.

Clearly the approach that I advocate draws us into certain out of favour areas, which creates discomfort. This is in stark contrast to many portfolios that are invested solely in the most popular parts of the market. This squarely includes passive investing, where right now the largest allocations are to the most expensive companies. I believe that the prolonged period of rising valuation multiples has left many investors thinking that this conventional approach is without risk.

John Maynard Keynes said that “worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally”. It is thus that most investors won’t panic until it is too late.

Our current portfolio has a price earnings ratio of 12x, and a ratio of just 10x against expected earnings for next year. Whilst providing no guarantee of success, it means that we don’t need to be investing with unbridled optimism, because we are not reliant on unprecedented levels of earnings growth or multiple expansion. I don’t think we are doomed, but I think a little more panic might prove wise!

[1] https://youtu.be/nR0lOtdvqyg

[2] https://www.fca.org.uk/news/speeches/predictable-volatility

[3] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/10/15/how-high-economic-uncertainty-may-threaten-global-financial-stability

[4] https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financial-policy-summary-and-record/2024/october-2024

[5] https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240729-credit-trends-global-refinancing-update-q3-2024-near-term-risk-eases-13198445

[6] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/nonfinancial_debt/chart/#units:percent-of-gdp

[7] https://shillerdata.com/

The evidence is that the average active fund has produced disappointing results for investors.
This means that to be an active fund manager you either need to believe that you are better
than average or brazenly ignore reality. Not being one to put my head in the sand, I spend a
lot of time thinking about our sources of “edge” that I think make us better than average.

For us to deliver outperformance, this edge needs to be big enough to cover the fees that we
charge, as it is the combination of edge and fees that determines if a fund has “alpha”. The
fact that the average active fund has historically underperformed passive equivalents, is as
much a reflection of fees being too high as it is managers struggling to “beat the market” with
their investment decisions. It is this thinking that informed our decision to cap the fees that
the fund charges.

The disappointing record of active management is rationalised in the academic community
with the “efficient market hypothesis”. This is the idea that all available information is rapidly
assimilated into market prices, such that beating the market isn’t just hard, but is impossible.
The theory relies on lots of information wonks diligently reading annual reports, and the like,
such that share prices immediately reflect their collective wisdom.

Whilst I don’t believe the efficient market hypothesis to be true, it is a good approximation.
Where the argument for markets being efficient gets interesting, is that as more money flows
to be invested passively, there will be fewer people crunching the numbers. This then means
that prices should be less representative of “all available information”, making it is easier to
have an edge.

The famed “quant” Cliff Asness recently penned an opinion piece1 where he makes the case
that markets have become less efficient. Asness specifically states the case for there being
more opportunity to profit from value investing, based on evidence of market prices being
more disconnected from underlying corporate results. He puts forward three possible reasons
why this might be so:

1) The rise of passive investing.
2) Very low interest rates.
3) The negative impact of technology (or “gamification” of markets).

His view is that it is actually the third of these that is driving a reduction in market efficiency,
and the quotes I provide below are my attempt to give you a succinct summary of what he
wrote (the emphasis is my own).

“Imagine some fraction of the market passively hold the index and the rest are active traders/investors trying to outperform. Now divide this active group in two (this is the obnoxious part). One group are sharks, the other minnows. Minnows make bad decisions based on emotion, story, tastes that are not relevant for risk and return, and behavioral biases. Sharks outperform by taking the other side of the minnows’ misguided positions. Well, if indexing has grown, whether this has made markets more or less efficient comes down to whether more sharks or more minnows moved to indexing. If more sharks have moved, the remaining sharks should have an easier time making money over the long term as there is less competition in betting against the minnows, but the minnows have more influence than they used to at the short to medium term. Prices are a dollar-weighted average of opinions, and if a larger fraction of this is misguided, so will be prices.”

“I think the rise of indexing and the super low interest rates of the last 10-15 years may have had exactly this effect (more crazy, and crazier, minnows, fewer rational G&D [Graham & Dodd[1] / value] disciples), but I conjecture that’s a relatively small part of the story. I’m far more certain that social media, the overconfidence that come when people think all the world’s data is at their fingertips, and gamified, fake-free, instant, 24/7 trading has done so in a significant way.

“Put simply, it should be more lucrative for those who can stick with it [value investing] over the long-term, but also harder to stick with. More lucrative seems obvious. If the rational active investor makes money from the minnows making errors, then they should make more if those errors are generally bigger. But, it also seems obvious that it’s harder to actually do. The periods of underperformance will be more severe and last longer.”

Whilst this story clearly “suits my book”, it also resonates with what we observe. After six years of running the fund, I am more convinced than ever that “time horizon” is one of our major sources of edge. This is as much about focusing on the likely long-term earnings power of a business, as it is about owning them for extended periods.

I believe that many corners of the market are increasingly short-term, and not driven by a rational appraisal of fundamentals. This creates opportunity, but as Asness says, trying to capture it makes for an uncomfortable ride. In order to stay the course, you have to have done enough homework, otherwise the first bump in the road will leave you wanting to capitulate.

By way of example, one of our holdings went up 54% during the last quarter, only to fall back by 26% in the final week. Without getting into the weeds, it is hard to see that this level of volatility was justified by the news coming out of the company, with management reaffirming their guidance for full year profits. It is however a company with a relatively high level of retail ownership, and we believe that this price action has been driven by these folk more than the professionals who own it.

Although I give an extreme case, we often see a level of stock price volatility that appears disconnected from any reasonable interpretation of the facts. I believe that this is because of the dominance of people who aren’t acting based on long-term fundamentals.

Clearly my views, and those of Cliff Asness, argue in favour of fundamentals driven value investing having at least some weight in your portfolio. I increasingly view it as a “time horizon arbitrage”, but this means that you need to be willing to judge the results based on years and not months.

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[1] Ben Graham and David Dodd wrote the definitive value investing book Security Analysis in the 1930s.